Friday, March 18, 2016

Here Is Why There Will Be No Brokered Republican Convention

No Quarter -- First, before diving into the numbers, let me comment on the goddamn propaganda being spread by the media. I just heard some idiot reporter ask Rubio, “WHAT DO YOU THINK OF DONALD TRUMP’S THREAT TO INCITE RIOTS AT THE CONVENTION?”

WTF!!!! This is the lie that Fox, CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS and ABC are spreading. They don’t care about truth. Here is what Trump actually said in his interview with Cuomo:
CHRIS CUOMO: “Look, if you don’t get to 1,237, you don’t get that many delegates, but you’re close, what is your plan to bring people together at the convention? What’s your plan to get as many people as possible who don’t want you to get the nomination, what’s your plan to change their minds and have the whole party rally around you?”

DONALD TRUMP: I think there really is a natural healing process and I think it will happen again. And I believe it will. Now, if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. If we’re 20 votes short or if we’re, you know, a hundred short and we’re at 1,100 and somebody else is at 500 or 400 ’cause we’re way ahead of everybody, I don’t think you can say that we don’t get it automatically. I think you’d have riots. I think you’d have riots. You would have problems like you’ve never seen before. I think bad things would happen. I really do. I believe that. I wouldn’t lead it, but I think bad things would happen.
Turning Trump’s words into such a bald faced lie tells you everything you need to know about the corruption of the media and the political establishment. They demand that Donald Trump be held to account for everything he has ever said or thought. Yet, at the same time, they feel free to fabricate statements they attribute to Trump.

Which brings me to another big media lie–that there will be a brokered convention and that Trump will be short of delegates. Let me walk you thru the actual numbers. You only need to be able to add and subtract (use your own calculator if you like)

I consider this a conservative analysis.

There are eleven Winner Take All Republican contests between now and the middle of June. Donald Trump needs only to win 7 of the 11 contests. He does not have to run the table. If he wins the state delegates marked in red he will win an additional 435 delegates. He already has 673. That will leave him needing to win 129 delegates in the final eight proportional primaries.

There are 312 delegates at stake in the final eight contests (New Mexico, Oregon, Washington State, West Virginia, Rhode Island, New York, Connecticut and Utah). That means Trump only needs to win 42% of the delegates in each of those states. Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island and West Virginia account for 176 votes. Anyone believe that Ted Cruz will do better than 20% in those states?

Are the pundits stupid or liars? They are one or both. Otherwise I have no explanation for their refusal to clearly and simply explain the delegate math to the public. It appears they deliberately want to keep people in the dark and on edge about a potential war in Cleveland, Ohio.

The facts are clear–the delegate numbers are trending in Trump’s favor and, barring a disaster, he will continue to close the deal by the end of May. Also in Trump’s favor is the hysteria of the Republican establishment, that is starting to sound more and more like Democrats. All that does is drive more support to Trump.
Blog Author's Comments -- This is one man's opinion but he makes a very strong case for the nomination of Donald Trump. Everything the Republican 'Establishment' has done so far to take Trump down has been a total failure. But, they will be planning and scheming until after someone receives the nomination. I believe that many of them would vote for Hillary Clinton rather than back Trump. They have no idea just how strong the support for Trump really is. For months there has been the coordinated campaign of smears and lies about Trump coming from the party 'elites' and Fox News among others.

They have tried to connect Trump to the Klan, saying that he is inciting violence, standing with many on the left etc. If Trump wins the nomination I feel he will defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election. She has a huge amount of baggage for someone who will probably be her party's nominee. Anyone else would have been out of the race by now and preparing her defense with her lawyers for all that she is guilty of. But, Obama's DOJ will keep her safe and she will again escape unscathed.

To recap the numbers from the article, Donald Trump leads all Republican candidates with at least 678 delegates after Tuesday’s big night. 1,237 delegates are needed for the nomination. There are 20 contests left. Trump needs 559 delegates to wrap up the nomination. 11 of those states are winner-take-all states. If Donald Trump wins the states marked red-orange on the chart above, he will add an additional 435 delegates to his total. This means he would only need 129 more delegates in the final eight proportional states to wrap up the nomination.

I would have to agree that if the support from the voters continues, Donald Trump should have enough delegates prior to the convention. But, I would not be surprised by anything that the GOP 'elites' try when they get to the convention. We shall see just how much damage the party leaders are willing to do to stop the nomination of Donald J. Trump.

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