It’s called the “mid-term curse”: first-term presidents suffer a loss of appeal and voters decide to punish them at the polls. It happened to President Obama in 2010. Republicans rode a Tea Party wave to regain control of the House of Representatives in one of the most momentous election turnarounds in US history.
Will Democrats follow suit and recapture the House from Republicans this fall?
Predictions of a “Blue Wave” inundating the GOP in the November mid-terms abound. Everyone from polling expert Nate Silver to never-Trumper Ed Gilgore say one is coming. It will stoke the Democrats’ ambition to impeach Trump and completely stall the GOP agenda, they say.
Don’t bet on it. A little-noticed report released last week by the liberal-leaning Brennan Center for Justice points to one important reason why. The report projects that Democrats would need to win the national popular vote for congressional districts by a nearly 11 percentage point margin over Republicans to gain more than the roughly two dozen seats they need to flip control of the Republican-led chamber.
But that’s rarely ever happened. “It would be the equivalent of a tsunami,” says Michael Li, a senior counsel for the center, which is based at New York University School of Law. “Democrats would have to win larger than any sort of recent midterm wave — almost double what they got in 2006 — in order to win a narrow majority.”
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(Via: DC)
Blog Author's Comments: Even if they pick up some seats, they have to nab quite a few to flip the House. From what I am hearing, every time someone who watches the mainstream media news programs, they’re constantly jabbering that the democrats are going to win. I assume they are trying to convince themselves and their sheeple audience.
The Democrats have never had an original idea among them. They have always tried what worked for others. This time they are attempting to borrow from the Republicans, desperately trying to build a Blue Wave like the Republican voters built the Red surge and deluge which swept Republicans into both chambers of Congress and Trump into the White House.
One large problem with the Republicans is that some voters who are on the fence, now believe there may not be a reason to vote for the GOP, as long as Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell lead the parade that forced Trumps hand to sign a 1.4 Trillion dollar Omnibus bill. That was proof to many of their gutlessness and unwillingness to deal with obstructionist democrats. It is not over until all the votes are counted. But, at least Hillary is still not our president.
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