PJ Media -- Much of the criticism aimed toward presidential candidate Donald Trump by other Republicans has been predicated on the assumption that he will lose in the general election. Trump's many provocative statements, which would be considered gaffes if uttered by any other candidate but have somehow worked for him, are generally assumed to preclude him from securing the broad support necessary to claim victory in November.
However, one method of analysis known as the Primary Model predicts that Trump would not only win in the general if nominated by Republicans, but completely dominate. From the Huffington Post:
Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent.Basically, the Primary Model looks at how well candidates perform in their respective party primaries and extrapolates from there how they will do in the general. According to Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University and the author of the HuffPo piece, the model accurately predicts the winner every presidential election since 1912 with only one exception. Incidentally, the model also shows both Cruz and Rubio losing if nominated.
These forecasts come from the PRIMARY MODEL. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.
Early primaries are a leading indicator of electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states. What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is a cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year. This cycle, which is illustrated with elections since 1960, goes back a long way to 1828.
Blog Author's Comments -- I have believed since the beginning of the Republican candidates campaign, that the candidate I backed, and perhaps two of the GOP candidates could definitely win it all in 2016. I have never bought into the Democrats and mainstream media thinking that Hillary Clinton is a shoe-in. I stand with Donald Trump. I have learned a lot about Ted Cruz over the past few months and he is not the person I once thought he was.
The numbers being way up in the GOP primaries in every state, combined with the Democrats being way down, says a lot. In regards to Donald Trump, he is bringing in many new, cross-over and/or highly motivated voters. I believe many more people are now more aware of what the Democrats and Obama have done and want a change from a Democrat and career politician. This is why Donald Trump is the current front runner.
I noticed today that Fox News has come out with a poll which says some Republicans would back Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. If you have watched any of the debates, Fox News is much like the GOPe who want to drive a wedge between the voters and Trump and do as much damage to his campaign has they can.