Thursday, October 1, 2026

CNN’s Data Guru Just Dropped Brutal Numbers For The Democrats’ Midterm Dreams...

But not everything may be as it seems.

As I previously reported, Frank Luntz, a pollster who is no fan of President Donald Trump, sees a messier picture. Voters are souring on both parties heading into the midterms, according to Luntz, but the Democrat Party is in worse shape. Its turnout advantage is only about two points. That's thin, since the party out of power usually enjoys a big edge in a president's first midterm election. Luntz told CNN on Monday that everything comes down to whether Trump's voters show up. They turned out in force when Trump was on the ballot in 2016 and 2024. In 2018 and 2022, when he wasn't, they stayed home.

That's a striking admission from someone who has never been a Trump fan. But there's another factor to consider: the historic underestimation of the GOP in the polls. It happened in Trump's first term, and if it happens again the same way, Republicans will hold the Senate.

But you don't have to take my word for it. That's CNN's Harry Enten talking.
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